Tropical Update

Michael Lowry, Hurricane Specialist, The Weather Channel
Atlantic Tropical Satillite.
Atlantic Tropical Satillite. (Media: www.weather.com)
  • Ingrid stronger and larger, hurricane watches issued for parts of east-central Mexico
  • Tropical Storm Manuel in the eastern Pacific to move northward toward Mexico this weekend
  • Humberto spinning way out over the Atlantic
  • In the western Pacific, Tropical Storm Man-Yi will brush Japan

ATLANTA, GA, U.S.A. (TWCC; 05:43AM ET) -- Ingrid -Several Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter planes spent most of the day Friday investigating Tropical Storm Ingrid.

During the late afternoon missions, Ingrid was found to be both stronger and much larger in size. As such, the tropical storm watches for east-central Mexico were superseded by hurricane watches. Aside from unfavorable winds aloft, Ingrid is in an otherwise favorable environment for organization. The official forecast takes Ingrid to an 80 mph Hurricane prior to landfall in Mexico late this weekend.

The primary impact from Ingrid will be heavy rainfall of 10-15 inches with locally higher amounts across a large portion of eastern Mexico. South Texas and the Lower Rio Grande Valley can expect possible rainfall totals of 3-5 inches from Saturday night through Monday, with Coastal Flood Watches in effect beginning tomorrow evening in anticipation of persistent onshore flow. Rip currents will also pose a threat along south Texas beaches.

Humberto

Humberto has weakened to a tropical storm in the eastern Atlantic. Humberto may spin down to a remnant low, but will likely hang around over the open Atlantic at least into next week and is no foreseeable threat to land. It's possible Humberto could eventually regain hurricane status early next week, however, as wind shear relaxes.

As it stands now Humberto ranks second for the latest first hurricane of any hurricane season in the satellite era (dating back to the 1960s). Gustav in 2002 formed just a few hours later on September 11, so for the time being Gustav will stay the record holder. NHC conducts a post-storm analysis for all storms and it is not uncommon for changes to be made to track and intensity after the season, which means Humberto's ranking is subject to change.

Eastern Pacific: Manuel

On the Pacific side of Mexico, Tropical Depression Thirteen is now Tropical Storm Manuel (mahn-WELL). Manuel is embedded within the larger circulation that also includes Tropical Storm Ingrid in the Gulf. Manuel will drift northward toward Mexico and is forecast to strengthen before moving inland later this weekend. Torrential rains from the storm will spread across southwestern Mexico over the next few days and will likely result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Western Pacific

Tropical Storm Man-Yi has formed and is forecast to move close to the eastern coast of Japan (near Tokyo) as a tropical storm late Sunday into early Monday (U.S. time).

Weather Channel Hurricane Tracker: www.weather.com/weather/hurricanecentral/tracker

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Tropical Storm Ingrid and Manuel. (Media: www.weather.com)

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