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Tropical Storm Ida And Tropical Depression 9 Over The Atlantic
WILLEMSTAD, Curaçao (CSN | 11:31PM) -- Tropical Storm Ida formed over the Atlantic Ocean tonight and Tropical Depression 9 should become a remnant low within the next 24 hours. El Niño could bring early end to Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Tropical Storm Ida
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 37.5 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
Tropical Depression 9
Tropical Depression Nine formed in the central Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday and is located over 800 miles east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles as of Friday morning. An environment of increasing wind shear and dry air will prevent this depression from gaining any significant strength. The National Hurricane Center is currently not forecasting this depression to become a tropical storm. This system is no threat to land and should become a remnant low within the next 24 hours.
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 48.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate by Monday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
Subtropical Or Tropical Cyclone Development
According to the Weather Channel a subtropical or tropical cyclone development is possible off southeast coast and Florida soaking continues.
As is typical in El Nino years during hurricane season, many areas in the Atlantic basin are dominated by wind shear. This decreases the chance of tropical cyclones developing or surviving as they move across the Atlantic and the Caribbean. Therefore, we often look closer to the U.S. coast for development, where remnant frontal boundaries and other atmospheric features can lead to the formation of subtropical or tropical cyclones.
Such is the case through this weekend and into next week, when there is a chance the large-scale weather pattern could lead to the development of a subtropical or tropical cyclone off the Southeast coast. That said, even if this development does not occur, there will still likely continue to be impacts.
According to Weather Underground a subtropical depression or storm exhibits features of both tropical and non-tropical systems, with a broad wind field, no cold or warm fronts, and generally low-topped thunderstorms spaced some distance from the center.
El Niño Could Bring Early End to Atlantic Hurricane Season
The current strong El Niño, in addition to other potential impacts, may also shorten the Atlantic hurricane season.
A weather.com analysis of NOAA's best-track dataset from 1950-2014 finds that Atlantic hurricane seasons during a strong El Niño see the last named storm end two to three weeks earlier – a mean date of Oct. 18 – than the long-term average date of Nov. 5.
Four of the five previous Atlantic hurricane seasons with a strong El Niño since 1950 – 1997, 1987, 1982 and 1965 – saw the season-ending named storm fizzle by Oct. 18 or earlier. Only 1972 had a later end during a strong El Niño, only due to a pair of subtropical storms.
This earlier ending to the season was much less distinct with weaker El Niños.